Every indicator on this page was put through 7 major market reversals from 2008 to 2026. The ones that failed didn't make the cut. The ones that survived come with their scars — including the false signals — shown openly.
September 2026. Fourth consecutive monthly decline. The sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 11% — below the 12% line that has historically meant downward pressure on prices.
Nearly two decades of board data, plus a 36-year Teranet\u2013National Bank series (1990–2026). Dots mark verified figures — hover any dot for the exact reading. Dashed segments bridge gaps longer than 12 months and are interpolated for illustration.
Dots are verified monthly figures published by Greater Vancouver Realtors via board reports. Dashed segments span gaps over 12 months with no verified monthly data (notably 2010–2016) and are interpolated for illustration only. The May-2018 peak is estimated from year-over-year data. Max = 2008–2026, the earliest verified board data — no earlier history is claimed. The long-view chart is a separate series: the Teranet\u2013National Bank House Price Index for Vancouver (repeat-sales, Jun 2005 = 100), monthly Jun 1990–Aug 2026 — its index levels are not comparable to the MLS® dollar benchmarks above. Pre-1990 context: StatCan's New Housing Price Index shows Vancouver new-home prices fell 21% in 1981–82, then moved sideways for 18 years.
Each indicator was given explicit signal rules before testing — no chart-reading after the fact. Tested against the 2008 crash, the 2016 foreign-buyer-tax shock, the 2018–19 correction, the COVID freeze, the 2021–22 boom, the 2022–23 rate-hike slide, and the current soft patch.
When sales fall year-over-year while new listings surge year-over-year — yet prices still rise — a top is forming. It fired 1–6 months before every major peak (2008, 2022).
Below 12% sustained means buyer's market and downward price pressure; above 20% means the opposite. It describes the market's mode correctly — but it is a confirming indicator, not a timing tool.
Active listings peaked in May 2019; prices bottomed four months later. Better for bottom-fishing than top-calling.
Rate hikes are reliably bearish (2022–23: +475 bps → prices −19.1%). But rate cuts are not automatically bullish: the Bank of Canada cut from 5.00% to 2.25% through 2024–25, yet Vancouver prices still fell 5.5% YoY in 2026. Cuts only work when inventory is low and buyers can still qualify — neither holds today.
The final month before each top showed monthly gains shrinking (+0.5% in Mar 2008, +1.0% in Apr 2022 after +3.6%). Noisy on its own.
5,228 Greater Vancouver + Fraser Valley listings expired or were cancelled in September 2026. By October 1, 2,631 were back on the market as "new" listings — each with its days-on-market clock reset to zero.
Property Lab's answer: track what the official reports don't.
Seven reversals. Monthly board data (REBGV / Greater Vancouver Realtors), Bank of Canada policy history, and BC/federal policy events. Rules written before testing; misses published alongside hits.
The estimated 2018 composite peak (~$1.105M) is derived backwards from 2019 data — the original monthly package would pin it exactly. Ratio data before 2015 is sparse (the board didn't publish it consistently), so that indicator's sample is four episodes. This backtest is qualitative across major turns; the next step is a full quantitative run computing hit-rates and false-positive rates per threshold on complete monthly data.
History says a downtrend ends only when all three arrive together. Track them here — none are met today.
Sales-to-active ratio sustains above 12–15%. Currently 11% and falling.
Sales recover toward the 10-year average. Currently 25% below it.
Active listings roll over. Currently 24% above norm and relist-inflated.